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KAMAZ vs Veles — First League 2024

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
Preview
15:00
Veles
Veles
5/15/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 32KAMAZ Stadium
63%
KAMAZ
model favours
63%22%15%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KAMAZ63%
×Draw22%
Veles15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.90
Veles
0.80

KAMAZ creates 137% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 3 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.46
Veles
0.67

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.94
Veles
2.33

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
85%
KAMAZ or Veles
78%
Draw or Veles
37%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
38%
Veles wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
85%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
56%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
29%
Veles 1+ goals
55%
Veles 2+ goals
19%
Veles 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
81%
Veles (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

Veles away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.46 + Veles defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

Veles attack 0.67 + KAMAZ defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

KAMAZ scores more
63%
level
22%
Veles scores more
15%

KAMAZ at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • KAMAZ and Veles have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
KAMAZ
LDLDD
Veles
WDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KAMAZ face Veles (First League)

First League returns with KAMAZ hosting Veles. Match starts May 15, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

KAMAZ host Veles at KAMAZ Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.