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KAMAZ vs FC Sochi — First League 2024

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
Preview
15:00
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
8/22/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 8KAMAZ Stadium
43%
KAMAZ
model favours
43%27%30%
1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

KAMAZ43%
×Draw27%
FC Sochi30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.35
FC Sochi
1.08

KAMAZ creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.39
FC Sochi
1.16

allows per match

KAMAZ
1.00
FC Sochi
1.32

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
70%
KAMAZ or FC Sochi
73%
Draw or FC Sochi
57%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
20%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
74%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
39%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
15%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
66%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
29%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
59%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.39 + FC Sochi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Sochi attack 1.16 + KAMAZ defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KAMAZ scores more
43%
level
27%
FC Sochi scores more
30%

KAMAZ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
KAMAZ
LDLDD
Sochi
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KAMAZ face FC Sochi (First League)

First League returns with KAMAZ hosting FC Sochi. Match starts August 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

KAMAZ host FC Sochi at KAMAZ Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.