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KAMAZ vs Chelyabinsk — First League 2018

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
Preview
15:00
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
9/12/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 11KAMAZ Stadium
Big match
46%
KAMAZ
model favours
46%29%25%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

KAMAZ46%
×Draw29%
Chelyabinsk25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.27
Chelyabinsk
0.86

KAMAZ creates 48% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.31
Chelyabinsk
0.76

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.97
Chelyabinsk
1.24

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
75%
KAMAZ or Chelyabinsk
71%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
54%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
21%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
72%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
36%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
14%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
58%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
21%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
65%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chelyabinsk attack 0.76 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KAMAZ scores more
46%
level
29%
Chelyabinsk scores more
25%

KAMAZ at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • KAMAZ sit 16, Chelyabinsk 3 in the table
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
KAMAZ
LDLDD
Chelyabinsk
WDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KAMAZ vs Chelyabinsk — Match Preview

KAMAZ face Chelyabinsk on September 12, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

KAMAZ host Chelyabinsk at KAMAZ Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.