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KAMAZ vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
Preview
16:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
3/13/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 23KAMAZ Stadium
Big match
43%
KAMAZ
model favours
43%29%29%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

KAMAZ43%
×Draw29%
Arsenal Tula29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.25
Arsenal Tula
0.97

KAMAZ creates 29% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 37 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.35
Arsenal Tula
0.92

allows per match

KAMAZ
1.02
Arsenal Tula
1.16

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
71%
KAMAZ or Arsenal Tula
71%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
57%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
19%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
71%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
36%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
13%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
62%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
25%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
60%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.02 · 40 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.35 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Arsenal Tula attack 0.92 + KAMAZ defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KAMAZ scores more
43%
level
29%
Arsenal Tula scores more
29%

KAMAZ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • KAMAZ sit 16, Arsenal Tula 5 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
KAMAZ
LDLDD
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KAMAZ face Arsenal Tula (First League)

First League returns with KAMAZ hosting Arsenal Tula. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

KAMAZ host Arsenal Tula at KAMAZ Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.