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Kamatamare Sanuki vs Kanazawa — J2 League 2018

Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kanazawa
Kanazawa
8/25/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 30Pikara Stadium (Marugame)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kamatamare Sanuki31%
×Draw26%
Kanazawa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamatamare Sanuki
1.15
Kanazawa
1.40

Kanazawa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 126 away

creates per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
0.75
Kanazawa
1.25

allows per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
1.54
Kanazawa
1.54

finishing

Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par
Kanazawa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamatamare Sanuki ↓

Kanazawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kamatamare Sanuki or draw
57%
Kamatamare Sanuki or Kanazawa
74%
Draw or Kanazawa
69%

Winning margin

Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
12%
Kanazawa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
68%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
32%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
11%
Kanazawa 1+ goals
75%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
41%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
42%
Kanazawa (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamatamare Sanuki at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Kanazawa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.75 + Kanazawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kanazawa attack 1.25 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
31%
level
26%
Kanazawa scores more
43%

Kanazawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamatamare Sanuki vs Kanazawa

Kanazawa beat Kamatamare Sanuki 2-0 in J2 League on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Pikara Stadium (Marugame).