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Kaluga vs Volgar Astrakhan — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Kaluga
Kaluga
Preview
16:00
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
10/30/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 16Orbita stadium
44%
Volgar Astrakhan
model favours
29%27%44%

Volgar Astrakhan score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kaluga29%
×Draw27%
Volgar Astrakhan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.05
Volgar Astrakhan
1.38

Volgar Astrakhan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

creates per match

Kaluga
1.06
Volgar Astrakhan
1.19

allows per match

Kaluga
1.56
Volgar Astrakhan
1.04

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
56%
Kaluga or Volgar Astrakhan
73%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
71%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
11%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
65%
Kaluga 2+ goals
28%
Kaluga 3+ goals
9%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
75%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
40%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
39%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 1.06 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.19 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kaluga scores more
29%
level
27%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
44%

Volgar Astrakhan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 33% of Volgar Astrakhan’s matches
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kaluga
WLDWL
Astrakhan
DWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaluga vs Volgar Astrakhan — Match Preview

Kaluga face Volgar Astrakhan on October 30, 2026 in this Second League A - Fall Season Gold fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kaluga host Volgar Astrakhan at Orbita stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.