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Kaluga vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Kaluga
Kaluga
Preview
15:00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8/29/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 7Orbita stadium
40%
Kaluga
model favours
40%27%33%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kaluga40%
×Draw27%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.31
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.17

Kaluga creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kaluga
1.06
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.78

allows per match

Kaluga
1.56
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.56

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
67%
Kaluga or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
73%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
60%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
18%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
73%
Kaluga 2+ goals
38%
Kaluga 3+ goals
14%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
69%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
33%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
55%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 1.06 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 0.78 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kaluga scores more
40%
level
27%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
33%

Kaluga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Alaniya Vladikavkaz have scored in 9 games running
  • Kaluga and Alaniya Vladikavkaz have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kaluga
WLDWL
Vladikavkaz
DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaluga vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Match Preview

Kaluga face Alaniya Vladikavkaz on August 29, 2026 in this Second League A - Fall Season Gold fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kaluga host Alaniya Vladikavkaz at Orbita stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.