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Kalsdorf vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Kalsdorf
Kalsdorf
CANC
18:00
Gurten
Gurten
3/19/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 18Sportzentrum Kalsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Kalsdorf34%
×Draw24%
Gurten42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalsdorf
1.39
Gurten
1.58

Gurten creates 14% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 110 away

creates per match

Kalsdorf
1.61
Gurten
1.56

allows per match

Kalsdorf
1.59
Gurten
1.17

finishing

Kalsdorf+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalsdorf ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kalsdorf or draw
58%
Kalsdorf or Gurten
76%
Draw or Gurten
66%

Winning margin

Kalsdorf wins by 2+
15%
Gurten wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kalsdorf 1+ goals
75%
Kalsdorf 2+ goals
40%
Kalsdorf 3+ goals
16%
Gurten 1+ goals
79%
Gurten 2+ goals
47%
Gurten 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kalsdorf (draw refunded)
44%
Gurten (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalsdorf at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalsdorf attack 1.61 + Gurten defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Gurten attack 1.56 + Kalsdorf defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kalsdorf scores more
34%
level
24%
Gurten scores more
42%

Gurten at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kalsdorf face Gurten (Regionalliga - Mitte)

Regionalliga - Mitte returns with Kalsdorf hosting Gurten. Match starts March 19, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kalsdorf host Gurten at Sportzentrum Kalsdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.