Kalsdorf 0–0 Gurten: Result & Stats

Kalsdorf

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gurten

6/7/2019

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 30Sportzentrum Kalsdorf (Kalsdorf bei Graz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Kalsdorf34%

×Draw24%

Gurten42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KalsdorfExpected goals in this matchGurten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.58

Kalsdorf

1.40

Gurten

1.58

Gurten creates 13% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 108 away

1.61

creates per match

1.56

1.59

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Kalsdorf

1.61

Gurten

1.56

allows per match

Kalsdorf

1.59

Gurten

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalsdorf+0.00on par

Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalsdorf ↓

Gurten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kalsdorf or draw

58%

Kalsdorf or Gurten

76%

Draw or Gurten

66%

Winning margin

Kalsdorf wins by 2+

15%

Gurten wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kalsdorf 1+ goals

75%

Kalsdorf 2+ goals

41%

Kalsdorf 3+ goals

17%

Gurten 1+ goals

79%

Gurten 2+ goals

47%

Gurten 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kalsdorf (draw refunded)

45%

Gurten (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalsdorf at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalsdorf attack 1.61 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gurten attack 1.56 + Kalsdorf defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kalsdorf scores more

34%

level

24%

Gurten scores more

42%

Gurten at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

A. Pfingstner← L. Reisinger

62'

F. Weissenbrunner← D. Schroll

70'

L. Berer← B. Öhlböck

72'

M. Ebner← M. Salentinig

77'

A. Kouskous← T. Kreilinger

Kalsdorf

Gurten

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Hack

59'▲A. Pfingstner←▼L. Reisinger

62'▲F. Weissenbrunner←▼D. Schroll

72'▲M. Ebner←▼M. Salentinig

Kalsdorf substitutes

PfingstnerWeissenbrunnerEbnerHabibovicZechner

Manager: P. Madritsch

70'▲L. Berer←▼B. Öhlböck

77'▲A. Kouskous←▼T. Kreilinger

Gurten substitutes

BererKouskousCircikPericWittner