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Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva — Meistriliiga 2026

Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
3/9/2024MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 2Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Kalju Nomme56%
×Draw22%
Trans Narva22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalju Nomme
1.95
Trans Narva
1.13

Kalju Nomme creates 73% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 130 away

creates per match

Kalju Nomme
1.98
Trans Narva
1.14

allows per match

Kalju Nomme
1.11
Trans Narva
1.92

finishing

Kalju Nomme+0.00on par
Trans Narva+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalju Nomme ↓

Trans Narva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kalju Nomme or draw
78%
Kalju Nomme or Trans Narva
78%
Draw or Trans Narva
44%

Winning margin

Kalju Nomme wins by 2+
33%
Trans Narva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kalju Nomme 1+ goals
86%
Kalju Nomme 2+ goals
58%
Kalju Nomme 3+ goals
31%
Trans Narva 1+ goals
68%
Trans Narva 2+ goals
31%
Trans Narva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)
72%
Trans Narva (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalju Nomme at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.11 · 129 matches

Trans Narva away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.92 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalju Nomme attack 1.98 + Trans Narva defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.95

Trans Narva attack 1.14 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kalju Nomme scores more
56%
level
22%
Trans Narva scores more
22%

Kalju Nomme at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kalju Nomme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva

Kalju Nomme beat Trans Narva 3-0 in Meistriliiga on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.