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Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
FT
1 – 0
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3EJL Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kalju Nomme35%
×Draw29%
Trans Narva36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalju Nomme
1.09
Trans Narva
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kalju Nomme
1.38
Trans Narva
1.20

allows per match

Kalju Nomme
1.00
Trans Narva
0.80

finishing

Kalju Nomme+0.00on par
Trans Narva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalju Nomme ↓

Trans Narva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kalju Nomme or draw
64%
Kalju Nomme or Trans Narva
71%
Draw or Trans Narva
65%

Winning margin

Kalju Nomme wins by 2+
14%
Trans Narva wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kalju Nomme 1+ goals
66%
Kalju Nomme 2+ goals
30%
Kalju Nomme 3+ goals
10%
Trans Narva 1+ goals
67%
Trans Narva 2+ goals
30%
Trans Narva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)
50%
Trans Narva (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalju Nomme at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Trans Narva away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalju Nomme attack 1.38 + Trans Narva defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.09

Trans Narva attack 1.20 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kalju Nomme scores more
35%
level
29%
Trans Narva scores more
36%

Trans Narva at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Trans Narva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Kalju Nomme 1–0 Trans Narva

Kalju Nomme beat Trans Narva 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at EJL Jalgpallihall in Tallinn.