Kaisar 0–3 Kyzyl-Zhar: Result & Stats

Kaisar

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Kyzyl-Zhar

3/6/2024

Premier League · Round 2Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kaisar38%

×Draw31%

Kyzyl-Zhar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaisarExpected goals in this matchKyzyl-Zhar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.96

Kaisar

1.07

Kyzyl-Zhar

0.96

Kaisar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 79 away

0.95

creates per match

0.81

1.11

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Kaisar

0.95

Kyzyl-Zhar

0.81

allows per match

Kaisar

1.11

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaisar+0.00on par

Kyzyl-Zhar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaisar ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kaisar or draw

68%

Kaisar or Kyzyl-Zhar

69%

Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar

62%

Winning margin

Kaisar wins by 2+

15%

Kyzyl-Zhar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kaisar 1+ goals

66%

Kaisar 2+ goals

29%

Kaisar 3+ goals

9%

Kyzyl-Zhar 1+ goals

62%

Kyzyl-Zhar 2+ goals

25%

Kyzyl-Zhar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kaisar (draw refunded)

54%

Kyzyl-Zhar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaisar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaisar attack 0.95 + Kyzyl-Zhar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kyzyl-Zhar attack 0.81 + Kaisar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kaisar scores more

38%

level

31%

Kyzyl-Zhar scores more

32%

Kaisar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff