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Kaisar vs Kyzyl-Zhar — Cup 2019

Kaisar
Kaisar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kyzyl-Zhar
Kyzyl-Zhar
8/14/2022CupCup · Group Stage - 5Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kaisar47%
×Draw28%
Kyzyl-Zhar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaisar
1.36
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.90

Kaisar creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kaisar
1.43
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.93

allows per match

Kaisar
0.86
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.29

finishing

Kaisar+0.00on par
Kyzyl-Zhar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaisar ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kaisar or draw
75%
Kaisar or Kyzyl-Zhar
72%
Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar
53%

Winning margin

Kaisar wins by 2+
23%
Kyzyl-Zhar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaisar 1+ goals
74%
Kaisar 2+ goals
39%
Kaisar 3+ goals
16%
Kyzyl-Zhar 1+ goals
59%
Kyzyl-Zhar 2+ goals
23%
Kyzyl-Zhar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kaisar (draw refunded)
66%
Kyzyl-Zhar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaisar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaisar attack 1.43 + Kyzyl-Zhar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kyzyl-Zhar attack 0.93 + Kaisar defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaisar scores more
47%
level
28%
Kyzyl-Zhar scores more
25%

Kaisar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaisar vs Kyzyl-Zhar

Kaisar beat Kyzyl-Zhar 3-1 in Cup on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva in Kyzylorda.