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Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu — Cup 2019

Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zhetysu
Zhetysu
8/8/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 4Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kairat Almaty59%
×Draw23%
Zhetysu18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Almaty
1.79
Zhetysu
0.88

Kairat Almaty creates 103% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kairat Almaty
2.00
Zhetysu
0.75

allows per match

Kairat Almaty
1.00
Zhetysu
1.58

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par
Zhetysu+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Zhetysu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw
82%
Kairat Almaty or Zhetysu
77%
Draw or Zhetysu
41%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
34%
Zhetysu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
83%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
53%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
26%
Zhetysu 1+ goals
59%
Zhetysu 2+ goals
22%
Zhetysu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
76%
Zhetysu (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Zhetysu away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 2.00 + Zhetysu defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Zhetysu attack 0.75 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more
59%
level
23%
Zhetysu scores more
18%

Kairat Almaty at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu

Kairat Almaty beat Zhetysu 3-0 in Cup on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Almaty.