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Kaganat vs Abdish-Ata — Premier League 2019

Kaganat
Kaganat
FT
1 – 1
Abdish-Ata
Abdish-Ata
7/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kaganat33%
×Draw25%
Abdish-Ata42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaganat
1.31
Abdish-Ata
1.53

Abdish-Ata creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 94 away

creates per match

Kaganat
1.35
Abdish-Ata
1.94

allows per match

Kaganat
1.12
Abdish-Ata
1.26

finishing

Kaganat+0.00on par
Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaganat ↓

Abdish-Ata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kaganat or draw
58%
Kaganat or Abdish-Ata
75%
Draw or Abdish-Ata
67%

Winning margin

Kaganat wins by 2+
14%
Abdish-Ata wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kaganat 1+ goals
73%
Kaganat 2+ goals
38%
Kaganat 3+ goals
14%
Abdish-Ata 1+ goals
78%
Abdish-Ata 2+ goals
45%
Abdish-Ata 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kaganat (draw refunded)
43%
Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaganat at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Abdish-Ata away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.26 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaganat attack 1.35 + Abdish-Ata defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Abdish-Ata attack 1.94 + Kaganat defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaganat scores more
33%
level
25%
Abdish-Ata scores more
42%

Abdish-Ata at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaganat vs Abdish-Ata

Kaganat and Abdish-Ata drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion in Osh.