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KAC Kenitra vs Raja Beni Mellal — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
1 – 1
Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
Unknown 90+3'
M. Al-Daghogi 50' (pen)
12/6/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 1Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

KAC Kenitra41%
×Draw29%
Raja Beni Mellal30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.19
Raja Beni Mellal
0.96

KAC Kenitra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 105 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.26
Raja Beni Mellal
0.91

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Raja Beni Mellal
1.12

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
70%
KAC Kenitra or Raja Beni Mellal
71%
Draw or Raja Beni Mellal
59%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
18%
Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
70%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
33%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
12%
Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
62%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
25%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
58%
Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.91 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
41%
level
29%
Raja Beni Mellal scores more
30%

KAC Kenitra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
M. Al-DaghogiPenalty
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: KAC Kenitra 1–1 Raja Beni Mellal

KAC Kenitra and Raja Beni Mellal drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on December 6, 2020.

Goals: M. Al-Daghogi (50' pen), ? (90+3').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.