Kabwe Warriors vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — Super League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 77+ matches
Kabwe Warriors41%
Man Utd Zambia Academy28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kabwe Warriors creates 28% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 77 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kabwe Warriors ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kabwe Warriors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.72 · 111 matches
Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kabwe Warriors attack 1.17 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13
Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Kabwe Warriors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Kabwe Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Power Dynamos
Red ArrowsMan Utd Zambia AcademyKabwe Warriors
Nchanga Rangers
Green Eagles
Zanaco
Mufulira Wanderers
ZESCO United
Konkola Blades
Kansanshi Dynamos
Nkana
Green Buffaloes
Nkwazi
NAPSA Stars
Mutondo Stars
Prison Leopards
MinesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kabwe Warriors host Man Utd Zambia Academy on Sunday, 24 December 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the Super League 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Kabwe Warriors vs Man Utd Zambia Academy
Kabwe Warriors and Man Utd Zambia Academy drew 0-0 in Super League on December 24, 2023.
The match was played at Godfrey Chitalu Stadium in Kabwe.