Juventus 1–0 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Udinese

Danilo 86'

1/7/2023

Serie A · Round 17Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Juventus54%

×Draw25%

Udinese21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.94

Juventus

1.65

Udinese

0.94

Juventus creates 76% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.73

creates per match

1.04

0.83

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Juventus

1.73

Udinese

1.04

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Udinese

1.57

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Juventus-0.17scores less

Udinese+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

79%

Juventus or Udinese

75%

Draw or Udinese

46%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

29%

Udinese wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

81%

Juventus 2+ goals

49%

Juventus 3+ goals

23%

Udinese 1+ goals

61%

Udinese 2+ goals

24%

Udinese 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

72%

Udinese (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.83 · 32 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.73 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Udinese attack 1.04 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Juventus scores more

54%

level

25%

Udinese scores more

21%

Juventus at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Danilo

Juventus · D

8.3

Match Events

36'

Manuel Locatelli

53'

Isaac Success

62'

F. Chiesa← F. Miretti

62'

L. Paredes← M. Locatelli

66'

A. Milik← Á. Di María

66'

T. Arslan← J. Makengo

67'

Jaka Bijol

69'

E. Ebosse← D. Udogie

70'

K. Ehizibue← I. Success

70'

L. Samardžić← S. Lovrić

80'

N. Fagioli← M. Kean

80'

M. Soulé← F. Kostić

86'

Danilo↳ F. Chiesa

87'

I. Nestorovski← Walace

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusUdinese

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots11

6Corners4

16Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots11

4On Target3

7Off Target3

3Blocked5

11Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

462Total Passes454

391Accurate Passes392

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0