Juventus 3–1 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Udinese

Leonardo Bonucci 45'

Cristiano Ronaldo 37', 9'

Ignacio Pussetto 90'

12/15/2019

Serie A · Round 16Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Juventus55%

×Draw24%

Udinese21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.94

Juventus

1.69

Udinese

0.94

Juventus creates 80% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.80

creates per match

1.05

0.83

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Juventus

1.80

Udinese

1.05

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Udinese

1.57

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Juventus-0.14scores less

Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

79%

Juventus or Udinese

76%

Draw or Udinese

45%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

30%

Udinese wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

82%

Juventus 2+ goals

50%

Juventus 3+ goals

24%

Udinese 1+ goals

61%

Udinese 2+ goals

24%

Udinese 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

72%

Udinese (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.80 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Udinese attack 1.05 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Juventus scores more

55%

level

24%

Udinese scores more

21%

Juventus at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Cristiano Ronaldo

Juventus · F

9.2

Match Events

9'

Cristiano Ronaldo

21'

Paulo Dybala

37'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ Gonzalo Higuaín

40'

Bram Nuytinck

45'

Leonardo Bonucci↳ Merih Demiral

61'

Ignacio Pussetto← Stefano Okaka

67'

Walace← Rodrigo De Paul

75'

Federico Bernardeschi← Paulo Dybala

76'

Matthijs De Ligt← Leonardo Bonucci

80'

Douglas Costa← Gonzalo Higuaín

87'

Ilija Nestorovski← Jens Stryger Larsen

90'

Rodrigo Bentancur

90'

Ignacio Pussetto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusUdinese

Overview

65%Possession35%

24Total Shots11

9Corners8

11Fouls5

Shots

24Total Shots11

9On Target6

4Off Target3

11Blocked2

14Inside Box7

10Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

782Total Passes392

712Accurate Passes330

91%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls5

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3