Juventus 2–1 Torino: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Torino

12/5/2020

Serie A · Round 10Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Juventus51%

×Draw26%

Torino23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchTorino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.89

Juventus

1.49

Torino

0.89

Juventus creates 67% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

1.73

creates per match

0.95

0.83

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Juventus

1.73

Torino

0.95

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Torino

1.25

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Juventus-0.17scores less

Torino+0.05on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Torino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

77%

Juventus or Torino

74%

Draw or Torino

49%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

26%

Torino wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

77%

Juventus 2+ goals

44%

Juventus 3+ goals

19%

Torino 1+ goals

59%

Torino 2+ goals

22%

Torino 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

69%

Torino (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.83 · 32 matches

Torino away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.25 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.73 + Torino defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.49

Torino attack 0.95 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Juventus scores more

51%

level

26%

Torino scores more

23%

Juventus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff