Juventus 3–1 Lazio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lazio

Morata 60' (pen), 57'

A. Rabiot 39'

J. Correa 14'

3/6/2021

Serie A · Round 26Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Juventus51%

×Draw25%

Lazio23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchLazio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.96

Juventus

1.56

Lazio

0.96

Juventus creates 63% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.80

creates per match

1.09

0.83

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Juventus

1.80

Lazio

1.09

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Lazio

1.31

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Juventus-0.14scores less

Lazio-0.05on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Lazio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

77%

Juventus or Lazio

75%

Draw or Lazio

49%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

27%

Lazio wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

79%

Juventus 2+ goals

46%

Juventus 3+ goals

21%

Lazio 1+ goals

62%

Lazio 2+ goals

25%

Lazio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

69%

Lazio (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.80 + Lazio defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lazio attack 1.09 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Juventus scores more

51%

level

25%

Lazio scores more

23%

Juventus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Morata

Juventus · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

J. Correa

39'

A. Rabiot↳ Morata

55'

Patric← S. Lulić

55'

G. Escalante← Lucas Leiva

57'

Morata↳ F. Chiesa

60'

MorataPenalty

69'

Cristiano Ronaldo← Morata

70'

W. McKennie← A. Ramsey

70'

Arthur← J. Cuadrado

80'

Francesco Acerbi

82'

L. Bonucci← F. Chiesa

82'

Andreas Pereira← A. Marušić

82'

F. Caicedo← Luis Alberto

82'

V. Muriqi← C. Immobile

90+2'

A. Di Pardo← D. Kulusevski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusLazio

Overview

52%Possession48%

7Total Shots15

4Corners4

10Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots15

5On Target4

2Off Target9

0Blocked2

5Inside Box7

2Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

527Total Passes491

458Accurate Passes425

87%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1