Juventus 2–0 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inter

N. Fagioli 84'

A. Rabiot 52'

11/6/2022

Serie A · Round 13Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Juventus42%

×Draw26%

Inter32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.22

Juventus

1.45

Inter

1.22

Juventus creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

1.80

creates per match

1.60

0.83

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Juventus

1.80

Inter

1.60

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Inter

1.10

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

Juventus-0.14scores less

Inter+0.50scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

68%

Juventus or Inter

74%

Draw or Inter

58%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

20%

Inter wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

77%

Juventus 2+ goals

42%

Juventus 3+ goals

18%

Inter 1+ goals

70%

Inter 2+ goals

34%

Inter 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

57%

Inter (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

Inter away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.80 + Inter defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Inter attack 1.60 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventus scores more

42%

level

26%

Inter scores more

32%

Juventus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

F. Kostić

Juventus · M

8.7

Match Events

52'

A. Rabiot↳ F. Kostić

56'

Hakan Çalhanoğlu

66'

DaniloGoal cancelled

68'

Milan Škriniar

73'

F. Chiesa← A. Milik

74'

J. Correa← H. Çalhanoğlu

74'

R. Gosens← F. Dimarco

77'

Danilo

81'

Á. Di María← F. Miretti

81'

M. Darmian← M. Škriniar

81'

M. Brozović← H. Mkhitaryan

81'

R. Bellanova← D. Dumfries

84'

N. Fagioli↳ F. Kostić

90'

Wojciech Szczęsny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusInter

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots14

2Corners8

16Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target4

3Off Target6

2Blocked4

6Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

475Total Passes521

391Accurate Passes449

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1