Juventus 0–1 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Inter

H. Çalhanoğlu 45+5' (pen)

4/3/2022

Serie A · Round 31Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Juventus42%

×Draw26%

Inter33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.26

Juventus

1.45

Inter

1.26

Juventus creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

1.80

creates per match

1.69

0.83

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Juventus

1.80

Inter

1.69

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Inter

1.10

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Juventus-0.14scores less

Inter+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

67%

Juventus or Inter

74%

Draw or Inter

58%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

20%

Inter wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

77%

Juventus 2+ goals

42%

Juventus 3+ goals

18%

Inter 1+ goals

72%

Inter 2+ goals

36%

Inter 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

56%

Inter (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

Inter away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.80 + Inter defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Inter attack 1.69 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventus scores more

42%

level

26%

Inter scores more

33%

Juventus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Handanovič

Inter · G

8.0

Match Events

2'

Lautaro Martínez

15'

Adrien Rabiot

27'

Manuel Locatelli

34'

D. Zakaria← M. Locatelli

45+4'

Juan Cuadrado

45+1'

Álvaro Morata

45+4'

Milan Škriniar

45'

Denzel DumfriesPenalty awarded

45+5'

H. ÇalhanoğluPenalty

59'

M. Darmian← D. Dumfries

59'

J. Correa← Lautaro Martínez

73'

M. De Sciglio← Alex Sandro

73'

M. Kean← Álvaro Morata

75'

Ivan Perišić

76'

Hakan Çalhanoğlu

78'

A. Vidal← H. Çalhanoğlu

78'

R. Gagliardini← M. Brozović

84'

F. Bernardeschi← J. Cuadrado

85'

Arthur← A. Rabiot

90+1'

R. Gosens← E. Džeko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusInter

Overview

54%Possession46%

22Total Shots5

8Corners1

9Fouls19

Shots

22Total Shots5

5On Target1

11Off Target2

6Blocked2

11Inside Box3

11Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

493Total Passes436

416Accurate Passes366

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls19

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Juventus vs Inter

Inter beat Juventus 1-0 in Serie A on April 3, 2022.

Goals: H. Çalhanoğlu (45+5' pen).

Juventus controlled possession (54%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.

Juventus vs Inter — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Juventus vs Inter