Juventus 3–2 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Inter

J. Cuadrado 88' (pen), 45+3'

Cristiano Ronaldo 24'

G. Chiellini 83' (OG)

R. Lukaku 35' (pen)

5/15/2021

Serie A · Round 37Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Juventus42%

×Draw26%

Inter33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.26

Juventus

1.45

Inter

1.26

Juventus creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

1.80

creates per match

1.69

0.83

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Juventus

1.80

Inter

1.69

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Inter

1.10

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Juventus-0.14scores less

Inter+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

67%

Juventus or Inter

74%

Draw or Inter

58%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

20%

Inter wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

77%

Juventus 2+ goals

42%

Juventus 3+ goals

18%

Inter 1+ goals

72%

Inter 2+ goals

36%

Inter 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

56%

Inter (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

Inter away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.80 + Inter defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Inter attack 1.69 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventus scores more

42%

level

26%

Inter scores more

33%

Juventus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Cuadrado

Juventus · M

8.7

Match Events

13'

Dejan Kulusevski

20'

Rodrigo Bentancur

22'

Giorgio ChielliniGoal cancelled

23'

Matteo Darmian

24'

Cristiano Ronaldo

34'

Lautaro MartínezGoal cancelled

35'

R. LukakuPenalty

45+3'

J. Cuadrado

46'

I. Perišić← M. Darmian

55'

Rodrigo Bentancur

55'

Rodrigo Bentancur

58'

W. McKennie← D. Kulusevski

70'

Morata← Cristiano Ronaldo

70'

M. Demiral← F. Chiesa

73'

S. Sensi← C. Eriksen

74'

Lautaro Martínez

77'

Alessandro Bastoni

80'

M. Vecino← A. Bastoni

83'

G. ChielliniOwn goal

85'

Giorgio Chiellini

85'

Romelu LukakuPenalty confirmed

88'

Marcelo Brozović

88'

J. CuadradoPenalty

90'

Juan Cuadrado

90'

Marcelo Brozović

90'

Marcelo Brozović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusInter

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots8

4Corners3

10Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target3

3Off Target3

4Blocked2

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

409Total Passes580

364Accurate Passes528

89%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls18

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

Match Recap: Juventus vs Inter

Juventus beat Inter 3-2 in Serie A on May 15, 2021.

Goals: Cristiano Ronaldo (24'), R. Lukaku (35' pen), J. Cuadrado (45+3', 88' pen), G. Chiellini (83' o.g.).

Inter controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.

Juventus vs Inter — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Juventus vs Inter