Juventus 1–0 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fiorentina

A. Rabiot 34'

2/12/2023

Serie A · Round 22Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Juventus53%

×Draw25%

Fiorentina22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.96

Juventus

1.62

Fiorentina

0.96

Juventus creates 69% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

1.77

creates per match

1.09

0.82

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Juventus

1.77

Fiorentina

1.09

allows per match

Juventus

0.82

Fiorentina

1.47

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Juventus-0.14scores less

Fiorentina+0.02on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

78%

Juventus or Fiorentina

75%

Draw or Fiorentina

47%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

28%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

80%

Juventus 2+ goals

48%

Juventus 3+ goals

22%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

62%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

25%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

70%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.82 · 30 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.77 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

Fiorentina attack 1.09 + Juventus defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Juventus scores more

53%

level

25%

Fiorentina scores more

22%

Juventus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Alex Sandro

Juventus · D

7.5

Match Events

2'

Adrien Rabiot

19'

Alex Sandro

31'

Alfred Duncan

34'

A. Rabiot↳ Á. Di María

48'

Giacomo Bonaventura

61'

Dušan VlahovićGoal cancelled

61'

G. Castrovilli← A. Duncan

65'

M. Kean← D. Vlahović

65'

L. Jović← J. Ikoné

76'

N. Fagioli← Á. Di María

80'

R. Saponara← G. Bonaventura

80'

Arthur Cabral← N. González

80'

A. Terzić← Dodô

83'

L. Paredes← F. Chiesa

85'

Bremer

88'

Filip Kostić

90+6'

Moise Kean

90+1'

Gaetano CastrovilliGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusFiorentina

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots11

1.02Expected Goals (xG)0.69

5Corners6

11Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots11

3On Target2

2Off Target6

2Blocked3

5Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

377Total Passes464

289Accurate Passes385

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls17

5Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2

Serie A: Juventus 1–0 Fiorentina

Juventus beat Fiorentina 1-0 in Serie A on February 12, 2023.

Goals: A. Rabiot (34').

Fiorentina controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.

Juventus vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Juventus 1–0 Fiorentina