Juventus 3–1 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cagliari

J. Cuadrado 87'

F. Bradarić 38' (OG)

P. Dybala 1'

João Pedro 36'

11/3/2018

Serie A · Round 11Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Juventus57%

×Draw24%

Cagliari19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.88

Juventus

1.72

Cagliari

0.88

Juventus creates 95% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

1.73

creates per match

0.92

0.83

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Juventus

1.73

Cagliari

0.92

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Cagliari

1.71

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus-0.17scores less

Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

81%

Juventus or Cagliari

76%

Draw or Cagliari

43%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

32%

Cagliari wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

82%

Juventus 2+ goals

51%

Juventus 3+ goals

25%

Cagliari 1+ goals

59%

Cagliari 2+ goals

22%

Cagliari 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

75%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.83 · 32 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.71 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.73 + Cagliari defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.72

Cagliari attack 0.92 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Juventus scores more

57%

level

24%

Cagliari scores more

19%

Juventus at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

P. Dybala

Juventus · F

8.0

Match Events

1'

P. Dybala↳ R. Bentancur

32'

Filip Bradarić

36'

João Pedro

38'

F. BradarićOwn goal

46'

J. Cuadrado← Douglas Costa

49'

Leonardo Pavoletti

56'

L. Cigarini← F. Bradarić

63'

Fabio Pisacane

67'

P. Faragò← A. Ioniţă

70'

Alex Sandro← M. Pjanić

75'

Blaise Matuidi

80'

M. Sau← S. Padoin

83'

A. Barzagli← B. Matuidi

87'

J. Cuadrado↳ Cristiano Ronaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusCagliari

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots6

5Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots6

3On Target2

8Off Target2

5Blocked2

11Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

543Total Passes476

487Accurate Passes399

90%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0