Juventus 1–1 Atalanta: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventus

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atalanta

M. Mandžukić 80'

J. Iličić 33'

5/19/2019

Serie A · Round 37Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Juventus47%

×Draw26%

Atalanta27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

Juventus

1.48

Atalanta

1.06

Juventus creates 40% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

1.73

creates per match

1.29

0.83

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Juventus

1.73

Atalanta

1.29

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Atalanta

1.23

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Juventus-0.17scores less

Atalanta+0.03on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

73%

Juventus or Atalanta

74%

Draw or Atalanta

53%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

23%

Atalanta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

77%

Juventus 2+ goals

43%

Juventus 3+ goals

19%

Atalanta 1+ goals

65%

Atalanta 2+ goals

29%

Atalanta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

63%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.83 · 32 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.73 + Atalanta defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atalanta attack 1.29 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Juventus scores more

47%

level

26%

Atalanta scores more

27%

Juventus at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

E. Can

Juventus · M

7.8

Match Events

14'

Alex Sandro

28'

Hans Hateboer

33'

J. Iličić↳ A. Masiello

45'

Cristiano Ronaldo

46'

F. Bernardeschi← Alex Sandro

61'

M. Mandžukić← A. Barzagli

62'

G. Mancini← R. Gosens

70'

Blaise Matuidi

74'

M. Pašalić← A. Gómez

78'

M. Barrow← J. Iličić

80'

M. Mandžukić↳ J. Cuadrado

85'

M. Kean← B. Matuidi

90'

Federico Bernardeschi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusAtalanta

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots16

5Corners8

16Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots16

4On Target5

8Off Target6

3Blocked5

7Inside Box10

8Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

576Total Passes355

494Accurate Passes277

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards–

3Offsides0

Serie A: Juventus 1–1 Atalanta

Juventus and Atalanta drew 1-1 in Serie A on May 19, 2019.

Goals: J. Iličić (33'), M. Mandžukić (80').

Juventus controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Turin.

Juventus vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Juventus 1–1 Atalanta