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Juventus vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Juventus
Juventus
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AC Milan
AC Milan
5/28/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 37Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Juventus44%
×Draw26%
AC Milan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.49
AC Milan
1.20

Juventus creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.81
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Juventus
0.83
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Juventus-0.07on par
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
69%
Juventus or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
56%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
22%
AC Milan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
77%
Juventus 2+ goals
44%
Juventus 3+ goals
19%
AC Milan 1+ goals
70%
AC Milan 2+ goals
34%
AC Milan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
59%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.83 · 27 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.81 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.49

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juventus scores more
44%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
31%

Juventus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Juventus 1-0 in Serie A on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.