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Juventus U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Juventus U20
Juventus U20
Preview
18:00
Santos U20
Santos U20
8/1/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 9
43%
Santos U20
model favours
29%28%43%

When Santos U20 score first, they win 91% of the time

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Juventus U2029%
×Draw28%
Santos U2043%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus U20
0.99
Santos U20
1.29

Santos U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 25 away

creates per match

Juventus U20
1.18
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

Juventus U20
0.94
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw
57%
Juventus U20 or Santos U20
72%
Draw or Santos U20
71%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+
10%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals
63%
Juventus U20 2+ goals
26%
Juventus U20 3+ goals
8%
Santos U20 1+ goals
72%
Santos U20 2+ goals
37%
Santos U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)
40%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.18 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Juventus U20 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Juventus U20 scores more
29%
level
28%
Santos U20 scores more
43%

Santos U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santos U20 have won 3 in a row
  • Juventus U20 sit 21, Santos U20 6 in the table
  • 36% of Santos U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WDWLW
U20
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventus U20 host Santos U20

August 1, 2026: Juventus U20 take on Santos U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.