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Juventus U20 vs Jabaquara U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Juventus U20
Juventus U20
Preview
18:00
Jabaquara U20
Jabaquara U20
9/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 15
58%
Juventus U20
model favours
58%24%18%

Juventus U20 and Jabaquara U20 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Juventus U2058%
×Draw24%
Jabaquara U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus U20
1.71
Jabaquara U20
0.82

Juventus U20 creates 109% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Juventus U20
1.18
Jabaquara U20
0.71

allows per match

Juventus U20
0.94
Jabaquara U20
2.24

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par
Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw
82%
Juventus U20 or Jabaquara U20
76%
Draw or Jabaquara U20
42%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+
33%
Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals
82%
Juventus U20 2+ goals
51%
Juventus U20 3+ goals
24%
Jabaquara U20 1+ goals
56%
Jabaquara U20 2+ goals
20%
Jabaquara U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)
77%
Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.18 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + Juventus U20 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Juventus U20 scores more
58%
level
24%
Jabaquara U20 scores more
18%

Juventus U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Juventus U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
WDWLW
U20
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventus U20 host Jabaquara U20

September 12, 2026: Juventus U20 take on Jabaquara U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.