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Juventus U20 vs Fiorentina U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Juventus U20
Juventus U20
Preview
10:00
Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
12/19/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 16
Big match
40%
Juventus U20
model favours
40%24%36%

Fiorentina U20 have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Juventus U2040%
×Draw24%
Fiorentina U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus U20
1.58
Fiorentina U20
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Juventus U20
1.79
Fiorentina U20
1.62

allows per match

Juventus U20
1.34
Fiorentina U20
1.36

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par
Fiorentina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Fiorentina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw
64%
Juventus U20 or Fiorentina U20
76%
Draw or Fiorentina U20
60%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+
20%
Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals
79%
Juventus U20 2+ goals
47%
Juventus U20 3+ goals
21%
Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
77%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
43%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)
53%
Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Fiorentina U20 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.79 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Fiorentina U20 attack 1.62 + Juventus U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventus U20 scores more
40%
level
24%
Fiorentina U20 scores more
36%

Juventus U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventus U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fiorentina U20 raise their game against the top half — 62% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWDDD
U20
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventus U20 host Fiorentina U20

December 19, 2026: Juventus U20 take on Fiorentina U20 in Campionato Primavera - 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.