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Juventus U20 vs Empoli U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Juventus U20
Juventus U20
Preview
10:00
Empoli U20
Empoli U20
11/7/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 10
53%
Juventus U20
model favours
53%22%24%

Empoli U20 raise their game against the top half — 28% wins vs the upper half, only 24% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Juventus U2053%
×Draw22%
Empoli U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus U20
1.90
Empoli U20
1.22

Juventus U20 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Juventus U20
1.79
Empoli U20
1.10

allows per match

Juventus U20
1.34
Empoli U20
2.00

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par
Empoli U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Empoli U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw
76%
Juventus U20 or Empoli U20
78%
Draw or Empoli U20
47%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+
30%
Empoli U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals
85%
Juventus U20 2+ goals
56%
Juventus U20 3+ goals
29%
Empoli U20 1+ goals
70%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
34%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Empoli U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.79 + Empoli U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Empoli U20 attack 1.10 + Juventus U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Juventus U20 scores more
53%
level
22%
Empoli U20 scores more
24%

Juventus U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Juventus U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
WWDDD
U20
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventus U20 face Empoli U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Juventus U20 hosting Empoli U20. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.