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Juventude vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Juventude
Juventude
Preview
22:30
Avai
Avai
7/28/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 20Estadio Alfredo Jaconi
Big match
44%
Juventude
model favours
44%30%27%

When Juventude score first, they win 100% of the time

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Juventude44%
×Draw30%
Avai27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude
1.19
Avai
0.86

Juventude creates 38% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 115 away

creates per match

Juventude
1.19
Avai
0.95

allows per match

Juventude
0.78
Avai
1.19

finishing

Juventude+0.00on par
Avai+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Juventude or draw
73%
Juventude or Avai
70%
Draw or Avai
56%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+
19%
Avai wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals
70%
Juventude 2+ goals
33%
Juventude 3+ goals
12%
Avai 1+ goals
58%
Avai 2+ goals
21%
Avai 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)
62%
Avai (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Avai away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.19 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.19 + Avai defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Avai attack 0.95 + Juventude defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juventude scores more
44%
level
30%
Avai scores more
27%

Juventude at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Juventude are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Avai win just 7% of their away games
  • When Avai score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Juventude win 80% of their home games
  • Juventude raise their game against the top half — 51% wins vs the upper half, only 36% vs the lower
  • Both teams score in only 28% of Juventude’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Juventude
Balanced
Avai
Balanced
52%PossessionBiggest gap48%
79%Pass accuracy78%
12.1Shots12.6
1.21xG1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
JuventudeAvai

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Juventude
1
Draws
3
Avai
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 50%
0–22–03–21–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Juventude
WWDWW
Avai
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventude face Avai (Serie B)

Serie B returns with Juventude hosting Avai. Match starts July 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Juventude host Avai at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.