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Juventude U17 vs Corinthians U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Juventude U17
Juventude U17
Preview
20:00
Corinthians U17
Corinthians U17
9/22/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 18
39%
Juventude U17
model favours
39%25%36%

Corinthians U17 have scored in 19 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Juventude U1739%
×Draw25%
Corinthians U1736%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude U17
1.46
Corinthians U17
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Juventude U17
1.43
Corinthians U17
1.61

allows per match

Juventude U17
1.14
Corinthians U17
1.50

finishing

Juventude U17+0.00on par
Corinthians U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude U17 ↓

Corinthians U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Juventude U17 or draw
64%
Juventude U17 or Corinthians U17
75%
Draw or Corinthians U17
61%

Winning margin

Juventude U17 wins by 2+
19%
Corinthians U17 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Juventude U17 1+ goals
77%
Juventude U17 2+ goals
43%
Juventude U17 3+ goals
18%
Corinthians U17 1+ goals
75%
Corinthians U17 2+ goals
40%
Corinthians U17 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Juventude U17 (draw refunded)
52%
Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude U17 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Corinthians U17 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude U17 attack 1.43 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Corinthians U17 attack 1.61 + Juventude U17 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Juventude U17 scores more
39%
level
25%
Corinthians U17 scores more
36%

Juventude U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Juventude U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Juventude U17 score first in only 6% of matches
  • Corinthians U17 score first in only 11% of matches
  • Corinthians U17 have won 3 in a row
  • 74% of Corinthians U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Juventude U17 sit 14, Corinthians U17 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DLDDW
U17
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventude U17 host Corinthians U17

September 22, 2026: Juventude U17 take on Corinthians U17 in Brasileiro U17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.