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Juventude U17 vs Athletico PR U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Juventude U17
Juventude U17
Preview
20:00
Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17
9/15/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 17
42%
Juventude U17
model favours
42%25%33%

Athletico PR U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Juventude U1742%
×Draw25%
Athletico PR U1733%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude U17
1.57
Athletico PR U17
1.36

Juventude U17 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

Juventude U17
1.43
Athletico PR U17
1.59

allows per match

Juventude U17
1.14
Athletico PR U17
1.71

finishing

Juventude U17+0.00on par
Athletico PR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude U17 ↓

Athletico PR U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Juventude U17 or draw
67%
Juventude U17 or Athletico PR U17
75%
Draw or Athletico PR U17
58%

Winning margin

Juventude U17 wins by 2+
21%
Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Juventude U17 1+ goals
79%
Juventude U17 2+ goals
46%
Juventude U17 3+ goals
21%
Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
74%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
39%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Juventude U17 (draw refunded)
56%
Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude U17 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Athletico PR U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude U17 attack 1.43 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Athletico PR U17 attack 1.59 + Juventude U17 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventude U17 scores more
42%
level
25%
Athletico PR U17 scores more
33%

Juventude U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventude U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Juventude U17 score first in only 6% of matches
  • Athletico PR U17 have won 3 in a row
  • 77% of Athletico PR U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 77% of Athletico PR U17’s matches
  • Juventude U17 sit 14, Athletico PR U17 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DLDDW
U17
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventude U17 face Athletico PR U17 (Brasileiro U17)

Brasileiro U17 returns with Juventude U17 hosting Athletico PR U17. Match starts September 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.