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Juventud Unida vs Berazategui — Primera C 2026

Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
Preview
20:00
Berazategui
Berazategui
10/3/2026Primera CPrimera C · Round 31
39%
Berazategui
model favours
32%29%39%

Berazategui raise their game against the top half — 42% wins vs the upper half, only 35% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Juventud Unida32%
×Draw29%
Berazategui39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Unida
1.04
Berazategui
1.19

Berazategui creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 143 away

creates per match

Juventud Unida
0.88
Berazategui
1.24

allows per match

Juventud Unida
1.13
Berazategui
1.20

finishing

Juventud Unida+0.00on par
Berazategui+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida ↓

Berazategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Juventud Unida or draw
61%
Juventud Unida or Berazategui
71%
Draw or Berazategui
68%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida wins by 2+
12%
Berazategui wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Juventud Unida 1+ goals
65%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
28%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
9%
Berazategui 1+ goals
70%
Berazategui 2+ goals
33%
Berazategui 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
45%
Berazategui (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Berazategui away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida attack 0.88 + Berazategui defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Berazategui attack 1.24 + Juventud Unida defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Juventud Unida scores more
32%
level
29%
Berazategui scores more
39%

Berazategui at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Berazategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Unida
DLWWL
Berazategui
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventud Unida vs Berazategui — Match Preview

Juventud Unida face Berazategui on October 3, 2026 in this Primera C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.