Juventud Torremolinos vs Real Murcia

Juventud Torremolinos

Preview

16:00

Real Murcia

10/25/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo

36%

Juventud Torremolinos

model favours

36%28%36%

Juventud Torremolinos win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

60%

under 2.5 goals

47%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos36%

×Draw28%

Real Murcia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud TorremolinosExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

Juventud Torremolinos

1.15

Real Murcia

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

1.32

creates per match

1.18

1.11

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos

1.32

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos

1.11

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw

64%

Juventud Torremolinos or Real Murcia

72%

Draw or Real Murcia

64%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+

15%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals

68%

Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals

32%

Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals

11%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

68%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

32%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)

50%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.32 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more

36%

level

28%

Real Murcia scores more

36%

Juventud Torremolinos at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Torremolinos

LLLWW

Murcia

WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff