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Juventud Torremolinos vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
Preview
16:00
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
2/7/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo
40%
Juventud Torremolinos
model favours
40%27%33%

Juventud Torremolinos win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos40%
×Draw27%
Atlético Madrid II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.29
Atlético Madrid II
1.15

Juventud Torremolinos creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.32
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.11
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
67%
Juventud Torremolinos or Atlético Madrid II
73%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
60%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
72%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
37%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
55%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.32 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
40%
level
27%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
33%

Juventud Torremolinos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Juventud Torremolinos sit 15, Atlético Madrid II 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Torremolinos
LLLWW
II
LDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventud Torremolinos host Atlético Madrid II

February 7, 2027: Juventud Torremolinos take on Atlético Madrid II in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Juventud Torremolinos host Atlético Madrid II at Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.