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Juventud Torremolinos vs Antequera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
Preview
16:00
Antequera
Antequera
3/21/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo
41%
Juventud Torremolinos
model favours
41%28%31%

Juventud Torremolinos win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos41%
×Draw28%
Antequera31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.29
Antequera
1.08

Juventud Torremolinos creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.32
Antequera
1.05

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.11
Antequera
1.26

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Antequera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
69%
Juventud Torremolinos or Antequera
72%
Draw or Antequera
59%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
19%
Antequera wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
72%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
37%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
14%
Antequera 1+ goals
66%
Antequera 2+ goals
29%
Antequera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
57%
Antequera (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.32 + Antequera defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Antequera attack 1.05 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
41%
level
28%
Antequera scores more
31%

Juventud Torremolinos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Torremolinos
LLLWW
Antequera
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventud Torremolinos host Antequera

March 21, 2027: Juventud Torremolinos take on Antequera in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Juventud Torremolinos host Antequera at Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.