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Junkeren vs Lørenskog — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Junkeren
Junkeren
Preview
13:00
Lørenskog
Lørenskog
7/25/20262. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 13Nordlandshallen
44%
Lørenskog
model favours
32%24%44%

Junkeren and Lørenskog have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Junkeren32%
×Draw24%
Lørenskog44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junkeren
1.40
Lørenskog
1.69

Lørenskog creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 6 away

creates per match

Junkeren
1.63
Lørenskog
1.50

allows per match

Junkeren
1.88
Lørenskog
1.17

finishing

Junkeren+0.00on par
Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junkeren ↓

Lørenskog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Junkeren or draw
56%
Junkeren or Lørenskog
76%
Draw or Lørenskog
68%

Winning margin

Junkeren wins by 2+
14%
Lørenskog wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Junkeren 1+ goals
75%
Junkeren 2+ goals
41%
Junkeren 3+ goals
17%
Lørenskog 1+ goals
82%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
50%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Junkeren (draw refunded)
42%
Lørenskog (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junkeren at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 32 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junkeren attack 1.63 + Lørenskog defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lørenskog attack 1.50 + Junkeren defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Junkeren scores more
32%
level
24%
Lørenskog scores more
44%

Lørenskog at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Junkeren
DLWLW
Lørenskog
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Junkeren vs Lørenskog — Match Preview

Junkeren face Lørenskog on July 25, 2026 in this 2. Division - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Junkeren host Lørenskog at Nordlandshallen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.