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Junior vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Jaguares
Jaguares
5/14/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 20Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Junior49%
×Draw28%
Jaguares23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.37
Jaguares
0.85

Junior creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Junior
1.38
Jaguares
0.68

allows per match

Junior
1.02
Jaguares
1.36

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more
Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Junior or draw
77%
Junior or Jaguares
72%
Draw or Jaguares
51%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
24%
Jaguares wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
75%
Junior 2+ goals
40%
Junior 3+ goals
16%
Jaguares 1+ goals
57%
Jaguares 2+ goals
21%
Jaguares 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
68%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Junior scores more
49%
level
28%
Jaguares scores more
23%

Junior at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Junior 2–4 Jaguares

Jaguares beat Junior 4-2 in Primera A on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.