Junior 1–2 Jaguares: Result & Stats | Primera A

Junior

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Jaguares

I. Rivas 9'

Rafhael Lucas 75'

M. Cortés 71'

11/12/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Romelio Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Junior49%

×Draw28%

Jaguares23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.85

Junior

1.37

Jaguares

0.85

Junior creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

1.38

creates per match

0.68

1.02

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Junior

1.38

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Junior

1.02

Jaguares

1.36

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Junior or draw

77%

Junior or Jaguares

72%

Draw or Jaguares

51%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

24%

Jaguares wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

75%

Junior 2+ goals

40%

Junior 3+ goals

16%

Jaguares 1+ goals

57%

Jaguares 2+ goals

21%

Jaguares 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

68%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Junior scores more

49%

level

28%

Jaguares scores more

23%

Junior at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Rojas

Jaguares · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

I. Rivas↳ F. Sambueza

41'

Alexis Hinestroza

61'

O. García← C. Alzáte

63'

L. Escalante← D. Moreno

69'

J. Bocanegra← I. Rivas

71'

74'

75'

76'

87'

90'

90'

E. Ávila← Rafhael Lucas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorJaguares

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots13

7Corners5

20Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots13

5On Target6

4Off Target2

1Blocked5

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

450Total Passes468

399Accurate Passes400

89%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0