Junior 2–0 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats | Primera A

Junior

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bucaramanga

1/21/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Junior50%

×Draw27%

Bucaramanga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.83

Junior

1.40

Bucaramanga

0.83

Junior creates 69% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 168 away

1.60

creates per match

0.86

0.80

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Junior

1.60

Bucaramanga

0.86

allows per match

Junior

0.80

Bucaramanga

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior+0.00on par

Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Junior or draw

78%

Junior or Bucaramanga

73%

Draw or Bucaramanga

50%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

25%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

75%

Junior 2+ goals

41%

Junior 3+ goals

17%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

56%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

20%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

69%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 202 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.20 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Bucaramanga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bucaramanga attack 0.86 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Junior scores more

50%

level

27%

Bucaramanga scores more

22%

Junior at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff