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Junior vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
3/3/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 10Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Junior32%
×Draw28%
Atletico Nacional40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.11
Atletico Nacional
1.27

Atletico Nacional creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Junior
1.14
Atletico Nacional
1.14

allows per match

Junior
1.40
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Junior+0.26scores more
Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw
60%
Junior or Atletico Nacional
72%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
68%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
13%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
67%
Junior 2+ goals
30%
Junior 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
45%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.08 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.14 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Atletico Nacional attack 1.14 + Junior defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Junior scores more
32%
level
28%
Atletico Nacional scores more
40%

Atletico Nacional at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Junior 0–0 Atletico Nacional

Junior and Atletico Nacional drew 0-0 in Primera A on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.