Junior 1–1 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Nacional

C. Bacca 14' (pen)

Á. Angulo 17'

9/17/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Junior39%

×Draw28%

Atletico Nacional33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.10

Junior

1.21

Atletico Nacional

1.10

Junior creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.39

creates per match

1.17

1.03

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Junior

1.39

Atletico Nacional

1.17

allows per match

Junior

1.03

Atletico Nacional

1.04

+0.61scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Junior+0.61scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Junior or draw

67%

Junior or Atletico Nacional

72%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

61%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

17%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

70%

Junior 2+ goals

34%

Junior 3+ goals

12%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

67%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

30%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

54%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.03 · 13 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.39 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Atletico Nacional attack 1.17 + Junior defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Junior scores more

39%

level

28%

Atletico Nacional scores more

33%

Junior at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

W. Pacheco

Junior · D

7.7

Match Events

11'

José EnamoradoPenalty confirmed

11'

Álvaro Angulo

14'

C. BaccaPenalty

17'

Á. Angulo↳ Jefferson Duque

19'

Carlos Bacca

61'

G. Lencina← L. González

64'

A. Estupiñán← J. Enamorado

65'

Nelson Deossa

70'

N. Moreno← B. Palacios

70'

Jhon Duque← N. Deossa

75'

Robert Mejía

75'

F. Ángel← H. Martínez

76'

E. Herrera← W. Pacheco

76'

L. Berrío← C. Bacca

78'

E. Ramírez← Jefferson Duque

78'

Jader← Ó. Perea

79'

81'

82'

89'

90+2'

90+2'

90+4'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorAtletico

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots14

4Corners7

8Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots14

5On Target5

5Off Target8

7Blocked1

5Inside Box6

12Outside Box8

Passing

68%Possession32%

471Total Passes213

419Accurate Passes162

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls10

3Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Primera A: Junior 1–1 Atletico Nacional

Junior and Atletico Nacional drew 1-1 in Primera A on September 17, 2023.

Goals: C. Bacca (14' pen), Á. Angulo (17').

Junior controlled possession (68%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.

Junior vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Junior 1–1 Atletico Nacional