Junior 2–0 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Nacional

T. Gutiérrez 22', 9'

11/21/2019

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Junior40%

×Draw28%

Atletico Nacional32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.08

Junior

1.24

Atletico Nacional

1.08

Junior creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.38

creates per match

1.15

1.02

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Junior

1.38

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Junior

1.02

Atletico Nacional

1.10

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw

68%

Junior or Atletico Nacional

72%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

60%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

17%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

71%

Junior 2+ goals

35%

Junior 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

66%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

55%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Junior scores more

40%

level

28%

Atletico Nacional scores more

32%

Junior at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

T. Gutiérrez

Junior · F

8.7

Match Events

9'

T. Gutiérrez

22'

T. Gutiérrez

46'

J. Sánchez← V. Cantillo

46'

J. Barrera← D. Bocanegra

46'

B. Perlaza← C. Blanco

53'

53'

53'

54'

57'

69'

73'

78'

D. Moreno← L. Sandoval

88'

Leonardo Pico

89'

L. González← F. Hinestroza

90'

Helibelton Palacios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorAtletico

Overview

43%Possession57%

17Total Shots10

4Corners3

25Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots10

5On Target5

9Off Target5

3Blocked0

10Inside Box1

7Outside Box9

Passing

43%Possession57%

310Total Passes403

221Accurate Passes318

71%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

25Fouls18

4Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0