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Junior vs America de Cali — Copa Colombia 2019

Junior
Junior
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
America de Cali
America de Caliadvanced
10/3/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Quarter-finalsEstadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Junior51%
×Draw26%
America de Cali23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.54
America de Cali
0.93

Junior creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

Junior
1.91
America de Cali
0.94

allows per match

Junior
0.91
America de Cali
1.18

finishing

Junior+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Junior or draw
77%
Junior or America de Cali
74%
Draw or America de Cali
49%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
27%
America de Cali wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
79%
Junior 2+ goals
45%
Junior 3+ goals
20%
America de Cali 1+ goals
61%
America de Cali 2+ goals
24%
America de Cali 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
69%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.91 + America de Cali defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.54

America de Cali attack 0.94 + Junior defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Junior scores more
51%
level
26%
America de Cali scores more
23%

Junior at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Junior 1–2 America de Cali

America de Cali beat Junior 2-1 in Copa Colombia on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.