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Junior vs America de Cali — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Junior
Junior
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
America de Cali
America de Cali
3/7/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Junior45%
×Draw25%
America de Cali30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.56
America de Cali
1.21

Junior creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Junior
1.75
America de Cali
0.91

allows per match

Junior
1.50
America de Cali
1.36

finishing

Junior+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Junior or draw
70%
Junior or America de Cali
75%
Draw or America de Cali
55%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
23%
America de Cali wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
79%
Junior 2+ goals
46%
Junior 3+ goals
21%
America de Cali 1+ goals
70%
America de Cali 2+ goals
34%
America de Cali 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
61%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.75 + America de Cali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

America de Cali attack 0.91 + Junior defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Junior scores more
45%
level
25%
America de Cali scores more
30%

Junior at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junior vs America de Cali

Junior and America de Cali drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.