Junior 0–1 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

M. Pisano 90+4' (pen)

8/4/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Junior47%

×Draw28%

America de Cali25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.90

Junior

1.34

America de Cali

0.90

Junior creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

1.38

creates per match

0.78

1.02

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Junior

1.38

America de Cali

0.78

allows per match

Junior

1.02

America de Cali

1.30

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more

America de Cali-0.03on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Junior or draw

75%

Junior or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

53%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

22%

America de Cali wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

74%

Junior 2+ goals

39%

Junior 3+ goals

15%

America de Cali 1+ goals

59%

America de Cali 2+ goals

23%

America de Cali 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

65%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + America de Cali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

America de Cali attack 0.78 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Junior scores more

47%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

25%

Junior at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Pisano

America de Cali · M

7.8

Match Events

32'

Marlon Piedrahita

37'

Duván Vergara

43'

Rafael Pérez

65'

S. Hernández← J. Sánchez

65'

E. Cetré← F. Hinestroza

70'

Juan Nieva

70'

M. Pisano← J. Nieva

72'

G. Carvajal← Y. Cabrera

77'

L. Sandoval← E. Farías

80'

80'

83'

88'

90'

90+4'

M. PisanoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorAmerica

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots6

5Corners1

21Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots6

2On Target3

6Off Target2

8Blocked1

3Inside Box3

13Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

554Total Passes320

496Accurate Passes258

90%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

3Offsides2