Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Junior vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
2/17/2019Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 5Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Junior50%
×Draw27%
Águilas Doradas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.45
Águilas Doradas
0.89

Junior creates 63% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 170 away

creates per match

Junior
1.60
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Junior
0.80
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Junior+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw
77%
Junior or Águilas Doradas
73%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
50%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
25%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
77%
Junior 2+ goals
42%
Junior 3+ goals
18%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
59%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
22%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
68%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 202 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Junior scores more
50%
level
27%
Águilas Doradas scores more
23%

Junior at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Junior 1–1 Águilas Doradas

Junior and Águilas Doradas drew 1-1 in Primera A on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.